We live in an age where data are abundant. This abundance allows analysts such as me the ability to delve deeper than ever before into markets, and to more fully understand their potential. With the spread of sports betting in the United States, it can be helpful for legislators, investors, developers, operators, sports teams, and just about anyone interested in the sector to assess where sports betting shows the greatest promise, and where you shouldn’t hold your breath.
What will indicate success in this sector other than population and income levels? The first map (above) shows in orange the counties with above average viewership of both NFL and college football. However, when we also apply above average participation in fantasy sports leagues, far fewer counties emerge (shown in blue). Convergence Strategy Group is currently building a multi-faceted model for sports betting in the United States which incorporates data points such as these, as well as casino gaming participation, prevalence of “super fans”, indicators from European and U.S. sports betting operations, and much more. This model will be continuously updated econometrically with actual performance data as it starts to come in, as well as adjusted by behavioral characteristics and data we think might correlate. We hope to start sharing this model at conferences this upcoming winter/spring.
Suzanne P. Leckert, AICP